24 January 2025
A new UK Eye Care Data Hub has been launched to provide health care commissioners and providers a “critical” resource with which to plan for future eye care services.
The tool forecasts the number of people who could have a range of eye diseases and conditions, and models the future eye care workforce, by UK nation and region, over the next 15 years.
It is hoped that the open-access online resource will help health services in the UK to optimise the existing eye care workforce, address health inequalities, and identify priorities for future eye care workforce education, training and development to support new models of care.
Organisations from across the sector, led by the College of Optometrists, collaborated to launch the new hub which models more than 40 eye conditions, with more set to be added in the future.
Forecasts suggest that the number of people with late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is predicted to increase by 24.4%, primary open-angle glaucoma by 15.9%, and vision-impairing cataracts by 16.7% across the UK over the next 10 years.
The tool will also enable eye care and service planners to understand how the UK workforce will change over time, with the number of optometrists expected to increase by 38.2%.
The forecast suggests orthoptists will increase by 50% and consultant ophthalmologists by 71.2% over the next 10 years. However, there is projected to be a decrease in the number of dispensing opticians by 11.7%, and nurses specialising in eye care of 33.3%.
Noting the long waiting lists that already exist in hospitals for eye care patients, organisers behind the tool suggest that, even with a predicted increase in areas of the eye care workforce, there are concerns that hospital capacity will not meet the level of demand forecast by the increase in prevalence of eye conditions and disease.
Dr Gillian Rudduck, president of the College of Optometrists, commented: “With the launch of the UK Eye Care Data Hub, eye care commissioners and service planners across the UK will have access to critical data and insights to support them to plan services that meet the evolving needs of their local area more efficiently.”
This will help to ensure patients receive the right care, in the right place, at the right time, Rudduck suggested, as well as reducing hospital waiting lists for the most urgent and complex cases.
“We believe that by commissioning more eye care services in primary care, health commissioners can provide more timely access to effective eye care for an ageing population and ultimately help prevent avoidable sight loss,” she added.
It is expected that forecasting future demands and trends in eye disease prevalence could support employers in the eye care sector to make decisions around recruitment planning and investment in higher qualifications and training.
An advisory group formed of project funders and stakeholders across the eye care sector, including the AOP, advised on the project.
Dr Peter Hampson, AOP clinical and policy director, shared: “The AOP was pleased to be part of the advisory panel for this project and to support the College of Optometrists with this important piece of work. By providing check and challenge on the data and how it is used, we hope that we have contributed in a small way to the output.”
Reflecting on the forecasts, Hampson described the predicted increase in prevalent eye conditions such as AMD, glaucoma, and cataract as “sobering reading.”
He said: “There are already significant ophthalmology backlogs with patients losing sight while they wait for treatment; continuing with the current mechanisms of care delivery is unlikely to solve this challenge.”
“That is why it is imperative that we use this new resource to support the economic modelling work that was published in 2024 by the AOP and partners to continue to make the case for change. A change that makes primary eye care the first port of call for eye problems across the UK,” he added.
Scotland and Wales have taken significant steps in this regard, Hampson noted, “but in England we are still restricted by patchy commissioning and a lack of funding.”
“If we are to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed by the increased prevalence of eye disease, we must act now and utilise the highly skilled primary eye care workforce and the highly equipped practices in which they work,” he continued.
The creation of the tool was supported and co-funded by the Association of British Dispensing Opticians, the British & Irish Orthoptic Society, the Department of Health Northern Ireland, the Federation of Optometrists and Dispensing Opticians, and the Royal College of Ophthalmologists.
The tool was developed by York Health Economics Consortium at the University of York. Eye disease prevalence and incidence data was compiled by 16 expert working groups of the Royal College of Ophthalmologists.
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